Saturday, December 10, 2016

Trump and the Art Market Chritsmas 2016

1. NEW YORK - The Art Market’s Reaction to Trump? Sales This Week Offer First Test -By ROBIN POGREBINNOV. 13, 2016  At Rockefeller Center on Sunday, milling outside Christie’s sales rooms — where private clients sipped mimosas as they took in one of Monet’s grainstacks — people in the art world sounded guardedly optimistic about how the auctions will perform this week, after a period of uncertainty exacerbated by the contentious American presidential election, Britain’s “Brexit” vote in June and China’s slowing economy.
“There has been a lot of insecurity and it’s hard to say exactly what will happen,” said Jay Gorney, a collector, curator and former dealer, predicting that “good things will do extremely well.”
The sales of Impressionist, Modern and contemporary art that start Monday offer the first test of how the art market will react to a Trump presidency and whether it will continue a softening trend that, for the past year, has had potential sellers reluctant to consign their best works.
“If you’ve got something great, you don’t sell it because you’re uncertain what you’re going to get for it,” said J. Tomilson Hill, the vice chairman at the Blackstone Group and art collector, about the prevailing mood. “Sellers are largely sitting on their hands.”
The result is that each of the three major auction houses — Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips — are entering this week’s sales with fewer trophies of more than $20 million than they have had in the recent past. Over all, the estimated sales in postwar and contemporary art are half what they were last year. The evening auctions of postwar and contemporary art at the three houses, for example, are expected to draw about $536 million, compared with $1.2 billion for the same auctions in November 2015.
“They gathered the best material they could with a lot of sellers cautious and not willing to commit,” said Neal Meltzer, an art adviser. “Supply is the issue more than demand.”
In the days before the sales, collectors, art advisers and auction specialists were pointing to encouraging signs, citing the postelection stock market highs, the post-“Brexit” London sales in June and Sotheby’s London auction of David Bowie’s art collection last week, which had a sell-through rate of 100 percent and set new top prices for 59 artists.
Moreover, many collectors are sanguine about the effects of Mr. Trump’s victory, both in the United States and around the world. “I feel great,” said the real estate developer Arnie Rosenshein. “I was for Donald Trump.”
Yet history suggests that single events rarely affect sales, art experts say. “The market has been pretty impervious to just about every event with the exception of the global meltdown of 2008,” said Robert Manley, who recently became Phillips’s new co-head of 20th century & contemporary art after 16 years at Christie’s.
Donald B. Marron, a financier and longtime collector, said he expected the auctions to be largely business as usual. “Clearly this is a surprise and in one sense makes everybody cautious until they see how everything works,” Mr. Marron said. “On the other hand, if you want to judge by the markets, less regulation is seen as positive. My guess is, it will be like most auction seasons: good pictures will do well.”... More

2. NEW YORK ArtNet
What Happens Now? See What Experts Are Saying About the Art Market After Trump’s Win
Don't expect a major impact on next week's auctions, experts say.
Brian Boucher and Eileen Kinsella, November 9, 2016
Republican president-elect Donald Trump delivers his acceptance speech during his election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown in the early morning hours of November 9, 2016 in New York City. Photo Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images.
Republican president-elect Donald Trump delivers his acceptance speech during his election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown in the early morning hours of November 9, 2016 in New
York City. Photo Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images.
As financial markets react to Donald Trump’s shocking win in the US presidential election, expert observers are weighing possible outcomes for the art market. While art advisors, academics, and art dealers talking to artnet News today say it’s too soon to make concrete predictions, especially based on the vague and quicksilver nature of Trump’s policy proposals, they did offer some observations on what to look out for as we settle into the fact of the reality TV star as the Republican president-elect.
Markets have been volatile since the election went Trump’s way, diving last night but stabilizing today, further casting uncertainty on overall financial futures. In those circumstances, investors often look to tangible assets like gold and art, and some experts say that art could conceivably also look like an appealing place to park money amid the global uncertainly following Trump’s win.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks during a news conference at the New Yorker Hotel on November 9, 2016 in New York City. Hillary Clinton conceded the U.S. Presidency to Republican challenger Donald Trump.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks during a news conference at the New Yorker Hotel on November 9, 2016 in New York City. Hillary Clinton conceded the U.S. Presidency to Republican challenger Donald Trump.
As it happens, next week sees five major sales among the New York auction houses, including Impressionist, modern, postwar and contemporary art. The aggregate estimate for the evening sales at Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips New York is anywhere from $882 million to $1.2 billion. All the evening sales at the same houses last year totaled $2 billion.
Did Artist’s Trump Campaign During 2000 Election Predict the Future?
By Sarah Cascone, Nov 8, 2016
Experts predict that the auctions will not be drastically altered by last night’s outcome.
“After everybody gets over the shock or elation, depending on one’s point of view, things may be up or down a little bit,” said New York art advisor Todd Levin in a phone interview. “But while I think Trump’s victory injects a modest amount of uncertainty, I don’t think that there is going to be any epic change in markets as that applies directly to the sales next week. That said, will the news put the auction houses on edge? Sure.”
Recommended Reading
These Artists Spent a Year on a Satirical Trump-Themed Road Trip. Here’s What They Learned
By Ben Davis, Nov 8, 2016
Suzanne Gyorgy, global head of art advisory and finance at Citi Private Bank, similarly suggests that major, high-quality, rare works of art may fare well next week regardless of last night’s outcome.
“The Wassily Kandinsky on offer at Christie’s is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” she said via phone. “It hasn’t been on the market for 50 years, and it’s in pristine condition. It’s a powerful picture. The Monet haystacks painting is also once in lifetime, as it’s the last haystack in private hands.”
Gyorgy also looked to international collectors to continue to prop up the sale results.
“We’ll continue to see buyers from Latin America and Asia who have been working really hard building collections and have developed an eye for good works. I don’t see that changing.”
Levin was similarly sanguine.
“Whether they like Trump or don’t like Trump, a lot of what he is talking about with regards to tax rates and economic policy will possibly be very much in favor of the high net worth individuals who are major art buyers at evening sales,” Levin said. “Day sales, where buyers are on the lower economic rungs, may be more affected since those people are more exposed and nervous.”
Kim Oosterlinck, professor of finance at the Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management at the Free University of Brussels, took a broader view in an email to artnet News.
“Among the factors that could affect the art market are expected changes in the stock market and in income inequality, and the possibility for war,” he said.
“As for his specific policies, his promises of protectionism and trade restrictions will in all likelihood reduce wealth, though markets may rally in response to tax policies that are generous to the wealthy. And art markets are known to improve in tandem with increased income inequality. The wealthy, however, often buy art as a way to avoid taxes; they may have less incentive to do so if Trump’s policies improve their tax situation.”
Trump’s bellicosity, with his pledge to “knock the hell out of ISIS,” along with his laissez-faire pronouncements about nuclear conflict in Asia, could also have an effect, Oosterlinck observes.
“If people believe Trump’s presidency increases the risk of war, on the other hand, art prices could decrease, as they did just before the outbreak of World War II,” he said.
New York’s Marion Maneker, publisher of the blog Art Market Monitor, looked askance at attempts at short-term predictions. “Trying to predict behavior based on politics in the short term is almost impossible to do and not really very fruitful,” he said via phone.
A New York private dealer was similarly cautious about making any forecast.
“What we learned last night is to be prepared for the unexpected,” said Andrea Crane in a phone interview, “so it could go in either direction. But I will say that in moments of crisis like 9/11 and the 2008 crash, the art market has typically held steady.
“I’m not expecting anything dramatic next week,” she concluded, “but then again, I expected her to win.”

No comments: